Re: 2013 Baseball America Reds Top 10
Originally Posted by Superdude
You're sort of expanding my point into performance when I'm talking about "skills" only. All of those flaws are easily spotted by any scout. It's the reason Chris Manno is an irrelevant prospect right now.
I don't think you could even draw data on this, but how many pitchers were projected to be great and failed inexplicably without any injury, loss of command, etc.? I'm going through baseball america's top 100's and it seems like the vast majority of pitchers turned out to be who we thought they would be, unless of course they got hurt or lost velocity or something like that. The hitters on the other hand are littered with guys who, without any explanation or reason, just couldn't hit upon reaching the big leagues. The scouts just flat missed and missed badly on a whole bunch of hitters.
If you lost velocity or command then you didn't turn out to be who they thought you were. Pretty much the same thing as position players who never got their bats working.
And how do you sort out a Jerome Williams who flopped and then got injured? Would he have put things together without the injury or was his initial flop a sure sign of future misery?
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.