[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by M2

Prior to 2010 Sickels moved Stewart up to a B+ and said "could be a number two starter or closer, only role is unclear." Sickels listed him the #17 overall pitching prospect in MLB, right between Mike Montgomery and Kyle Drabek, both of whom have also turned out to be severe disappointments. To be fair, roughly 80% of his Top 50 list has either flopped or is still kicking around in the minors. So Stewart's got plenty of company in terms of arms who haven't lived up to the hype.

BA initially listed Stewart as the Blue Jays' top prospect after 2009, though it moved him down to 4th when the Jays traded for Brett Wallace, Drabek and Travis D'Arnaud during the winter. Ultimately Stewart did not make BA's top 100, which clearly demonstrates that BA did not consider him to be all that compelling a prospect (the Reds had Chapman, Frazier, Alonso and Leake on that list). So BA looks like it had it right that he was a so-so prospect.

I've got no problem with the notion of trying him as a reliever in AAA, but Jocketty cashed him in at the exact right time and there clearly was some widespread skepticism about whether he could become a quality major leaguer.

This is precisely Jocketty's MO. Go ahead and deal that prospect from what some may consider 75 cents (or less) on the dollar knowing that other people are often over-estimating the probability that the prospect will reach/exceed his potential.

Or put differently, getting 75% of a prospect's publicly perceived value converted into real production at the major league level is more useful to the team than getting 100% of that prospect's actual value, which may or may not (likely not) include significant contribution at the major league level.