Originally Posted by RedsManRick
The deal is mostly being considered a very good one for Atlanta, but I think partly that reflects an under-appreciation for Martin Prado combined with an under-appreciation for that fact that Upton is about to get quite expensive.
Here are their respective performances over the past 4 years.
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ rWAR fWAR
2461 .286 .362 .485 .846 122 13.0 16.7
2434 .294 .342 .436 .778 109 14.9 15.0
Guess who's who? Obviously Upton is younger and has much higher upside. And when you roll in Chris Johnson, who's a nice little corner utility guy with some pop, I'd rather have the package the Braves got than the package the Braves gave up. But I think it's a better deal for Arizona than some are making it out to be.
Prado's a solid citizen, but he's most of the way through his prime and I'll suggest the difference between a 122 OPS+ and 109 OPS+ is the relative difference between excellence and all-rightedness. Guys like Prado help flesh out your team. Guys like Upton form the foundation of good teams. Of the two, Prado strikes me as the one who's about to earn the maximum of what he's worth (and AZ has to extend him or risk losing him to FA after next season).
If Upton puts up the kinds of big seasons he's capable of (e.g. 2011), he'll actually be a bargain.
I don't like what the DBacks got outside of Prado. I thought the Braves needed move one of their Delgadoesque arms for a meaningful bat heading into the offseason. Their offense was really bad last season and Chipper Jones had been their most productive hitter. Trading Tommy Hanson struck me as a bit of a disappointment because he didn't fetch a bat.
As an aside, I'm shocked the Yankees didn't make the move for Upton. This was teed up for them.