Originally Posted by dougdirt
The steal is worth about 0.18 runs. So no, it isn't equal to the triple. It brings it closer though.
... and a Caught Stealing is worth -0.456 runs. So you better make it if you go!
Actually a caught stealing in that particular situation is far more damaging than that. The average linear weight of a Caught Stealing is -0.456 runs, but most of those are for attempted steals of second base. If you are already on second base and get busted trying to steal third the damage is worse than getting thrown out at second because you are losing a runner that was already in scoring position. I don't have an exact linear weight value for getting caught stealing 3rd base, but it is much worse than -0.456 runs.