Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
... and a Caught Stealing is worth -0.456 runs. So you better make it if you go!
Actually a caught stealing in that particular situation is far more damaging than that. The average linear weight of a Caught Stealing is -0.456 runs, but most of those are for attempted steals of second base. If you are already on second base and get busted trying to steal third the damage is worse than getting thrown out at second because you are losing a runner that was already in scoring position. I don't have an exact linear weight value for getting caught stealing 3rd base, but it is much worse than -0.456 runs.
Well, if you're attempting a steal from 2B with nobody on 1B and 0 outs, you're going from RE of 1.189 to either:
Success: 1.482 (+.297 runs)
Failure: 0.297 (-.892 runs)
So break-even is at about 75% success rate when attempting with 0 outs.
With -2- and 1 out (0.725 RE):
Success: 0.983 (+.258 runs),
Failure: 0.117 (-.608 runs)
Break-even with 1 out is at 70%.
With -2- and 2 outs (0.344 RE)
Success: 0.387 (+.043 runs)
Failure: 0.000 (-.344 runs)
Break-even with 2 outs is 89%.
So the best risk/reward comes with 1 out, but 0 outs is pretty similar.
That said, I wonder how having his speed changes the chances of scoring from 2nd or 3rd respectively. We know he'll score on any single (even an IF single apparently), but he's also more like to score from 3B than the average runner. When you combine the fact that Joey Votto will be close behind, I think it probably swings the odds in favor of staying put when he's on 2B unless it's a virtual lock.