Originally Posted by RedsManRick
That said, I wonder how having his speed changes the chances of scoring from 2nd or 3rd respectively. We know he'll score on any single (even an IF single apparently), but he's also more like to score from 3B than the average runner. When you combine the fact that Joey Votto will be close behind, I think it probably swings the odds in favor of staying put when he's on 2B unless it's a virtual lock.
That's a good point and not one I had considered overly much. I think the calculus changes with the cleanup hitter up to bat, especially with only one out. (This could also lead to both Votto and the #2 hitter-- Phillips?-- boosting their stolen base attempts to career highs as part of double steals behind Hamilton.)
Another question/ challenge for you, RMR/ Atomic Dumpling:
Hamilton's on 1B. Phillips has gotten out without advancing him. I assume it's better to have Hamilton successfully steal 2B (with the opposing team then walking Votto to bring up another, lesser hitter that could hit into a double play) than for him to stay put.
How much better-- mathematically-- is it? In short, how much does that stolen base improve the Reds' chances to score runs? Because it changes the calculus of the whole inning, it can't be simply the 0.983 number, can it? Wouldn't it then have to change pretty significantly Cincinnati's favor?
Because, if so, I could see Hamilton running pretty much every time he gets on 1B, no matter the situation.