Originally Posted by 757690
One thing to note is that these runs expectancy charts are based on data from the the heart of the steroid era, 1999-2002. I have to imagine that those values would be different if based on the current run scoring environment.
Has there been any RE charts based on newer data?
The lower the run scoring environment (and the lower the slugging), the more important gaining bases becomes. So the more likely a stolen base means something.
The calculus, at this point, is going to be somewhere around 70% but could very well be less than 65% for a particular season and going forward. If that calculus does indeed change, so might players themselves. We could see another sea change in the game, with scouts focusing on speed guys again up the middle. (Their probable range difference might also boost WAR.)
Personally, I love a mixture of big boppers and little mites flying everywhere. It's seems to be more inclusive somehow.