Originally Posted by mth123
I have to wonder if the Reds won't send Leake down to start the season and leave him down long enough to push free agency back a year. Right now Free Agency could completely change the rotation. Arroyo after 2013, Bailey after 2014, Latos, Cueto and Leake after 2015. By 2016, it may be Chapman (in his last year) with Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso. I hope they can extend at least 2 of Bailey, Cueto and Latos, but pushing Leake's Free Agency back a year may ease the timetable on the younger arms. Roges, Guillon and a few of the others beyond the big 4 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson and Travieso will probably be needed at the back end. I think its iffy whether Stephenson and Travieso will be ready by 2016 and getting another year from Leake might ease the schedule a bit.
It is possible, though the news out of the Reds Caravan seems to indicate that the Reds are planning to start Chapman out of the bullpen for the first month or two so they don't have to shut him down before the playoffs.
I also think seeing the exact years when the pitchers become FAs backs up my point a bit that the Reds are going to have a really hard time keeping all of them while also paying pretty big money to guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.
A legitimate goal would be extending 2 of the 3 and getting a major league ready prospect or two for the one you can't extend.
Stephenson should be ready after 3 more seasons in the minors. Cingrani and Corcino are going to arrive much sooner than that. I think the Reds are going to be fine with the rotation, but looking at it in terms of free agency and multiple years into the future makes it much clearer how important a guy like Stephenson is. Many wanted to move him for a guy like Denard Span. But we are going to badly need some cheap but talented starting arms in the not so distant future.