Thread: John Sickels' Rankings View Single Post
01-29-2013, 01:53 PM   #138
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Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 20,514
Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kaldaniels Intersting points being raised here. Is it better to have 1 man on 2nd with Votto up, or men on 1st and 2nd with Ludwick (or whoever is cleanup) up? It may be a situational thing. My head tells me that if they are conceding a walk to Votto you should take that most everyday of the week though my heart wants to see Votto hit.
Here's what run expectancy tables say:

0 outs:
runner at 1st: .941
runner at 1st and 2nd: 1.556

1 out:
runner at 1st: .441
runner at 1st and 2nd: .642

2 out:
runner at 1st: .061
runner at 1st and 2nd: .015 (I found this very interesting)

The big problem I have with run expectancy tables is this scenerio: let's say Billy singles with no outs, and then steals 2nd base and then scores. That counts as a run for runner at 1st, no outs, even though Billy's stolen base actually helped the run score (This is how I understand it).
Therefore, IMO, doing the math to determine the SB% success rate to steal is flawed. Ideally, you want run expectancy for a runner at 1b with no attempt of stealing, bunting, hitting to the 2b side to advance the runner.
It would be interesting to see run expectancy when no "smallball" tactics are employed vs when they are. Maybe the numbers don't change, but RE is flawed for figuring out how valuable a SB is, in my opinion.

Not to pour salt on any wounds, but I also feel that slow runners with high OBP are overrated. The assumption is that a slow guy at 1b scores at the same rate as a Billy Hamilton/Drew Stubbs does. That is not true. Of course OBP is important, but speed/baserunning also is important.
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