Originally Posted by klw
Great discussion and information on run expectancy. I was wondering if there is a site(s) or stat which shows runs scored vs runs expected to be scored as a measure of skill/speed of a baserunner. Namely the runner's hits/ walks were expected to bring x number of runs, he actually scored y runs in season a. Is there anywhere tracking if the individual exceeds his expected runs over the year? If so is there an adjustment made for teammates who hit into double plays? Should there be?
There are several such stats out there. Perhaps the best is the Ultimate Base Running (UBR) statistic on Fangraphs. It is defined here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...unning-primer/
Essentially it gives the runner credit or blame for taking extra bases or getting caught trying. It does NOT include stolen base attempts. It is a measure of how many extra runs he scored vs the number of expected runs based purely on his speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths.
Fangraphs also has a wSB stat that accounts for a players positive or negative contributions on stolen base attempts.
You can see these two stats under the Advanced tab on a player's FG page like this one for Brandon Phillips: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...91&position=2B
You can see there that Brandon has been an above average baserunner in terms of taking extra bases, but has been only very slightly above average as a base stealer.
UBR is built into a player's WAR score. WAR is the sum of a player's UBR (baserunning proficiency) plus his wRAA (Weighted Runs Above Average to measure his hitting and base stealing proficiency) and his UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating to measure his defensive proficiency).
If you really want to go crazy with baserunning stats go to a player's expanded baseball-reference page and check out the baserunning section. You can find out more than you will ever be able to handle. You can see how often he took an extra base as a runner.
Here is Brandon Phillips' expanded B-R page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...br01-bat.shtml
Refer to the baserunning section of that page. As an example of what you can learn, in 2012 there were 16 occasions when Brandon Phillips was a runner on 2nd base when the batter hit a single. He scored from 2nd only 9 of those 16 times and advanced to third the other 7 times.
In his career, Phillips has stolen 2nd base 115 times and was caught 48 times for a success rate of 70.6% (not too good). He has stolen 3rd base 38 times and caught 11 times for a success rate of 77.6% (pretty good). He has also been picked off 30 times (wow!). He has also been thrown out 52 times when attempting to take an extra base on one of his hits, attempting to tag up on a fly ball, doubled off on a liner or attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.