Originally Posted by Benihana
For what it's worth, I see Mesoraco as a future #6 hitter, not a future cleanup hitter.
I see him as a guy who hits .260 with 20-25 HR, certainly not bad production for a catcher, but I don't see him as a guy who hits 35+ HR (or bats much higher than .260-.270).
I also see Vidal and Mejias-Brean both as backup types, not starting 3B. I'm not sure if Bryson Smith ever sticks in the show (he may get a cup of coffee or two). I'd sub LaMarre in for him as a 5th OF/defensive replacement. Other than that, though, not much I disagree with above. I wonder in your scenario if Cingrani usurps Broxton as the closer, if the Reds don't try to trade Broxton (or Marshall) at that point. That's a ton of money to have tied up in setup men, especially when they're going to need it to lock up Latos and Cueto (assuming you have Bailey leaving via FA). Personally, if I had to choose between Homer and Leake, I'm keeping Homer every time - unless he requires 2x or 3x the amount of money that Leake does- which of course is entirely plausible.
Sorry to be dense but who is Contreras?
I see Bryson Smith as the replacement to Heisey when Heisey starts to cost more than he's worth. I just don't see Lamarre hitting enough to be more than a minor league defender who comes up when all the passable CF guys are killed in a plane crash. Smith provides a little RH power, some speed and competent defense (much like Heisey) which makes him a decent back-up to Bruce and Hamilton.
Now that I was reminded of Hoover, I could see him in the RH 8th inning role and Broxton being dealt. Hoover will be in the pen somewhere for sure.
I too like Bailey better than Leake (way better in fact), but I don't see the Reds being able to retain them. Arroyo leaves after this year with Leake moving back in. Homer leaves after next year with Corcino moving in and Leake leaves the following year with Stephenson moving in. The money will go toward Latos and Chapman who will be a costly arb guy after 2013.
The only other thing I might see, is one of those pitchers dealt for a SS of the future. Cozart is a decent cheap guy who has his strengths and his flaws, but he's not a guy to lock-up long term to a big contract. If they can get one, Cozart could be gone by 2015 or not long after. A long term SS should be on the team's to do list.
Frazier might be another guy who gets too pricey in arb and I could see the Reds dealing him when Winker is ready. They'd probably want to keep his RH pop after Ludwick leaves, so he parks himself in LF for a year while Vidal, Mejias-Brean and maybe Rahier or even Rosa, if he develops, jockey for the job as the next 3B in a revolving door. I could see a Vidal/H-Rod Platoon out there (H-Rod in the 2 hole with an aging Phillips dropping down might be a better idea). Like you, I'm not sold that Vidal et al are major league starters, I just think they are better options on a daily basis than any of the LF options until Winker is ready. Vidal at 3B and Frazier in LF is much better defensively at both positions than Frazier at 3B and Lutz in LF. I like Frazier OK, I just think a couple of years of him at 3B may bring back memories of EdE. He's a better OF, but I'm not sure his bat is enough for LF long term. OTOH, his bat was better last year than I thought we'd ever see from him in the major leagues, so maybe he'll plant himself there for 10 years.