Re: Latos signs 2yr deal
We probably should have expected this outcome. A LTC would be difficult at this point. There is too much uncertainty on both sides. Three years from now Latos could be worth $30M/yr or virtually nothing if he has health issues. From Latos's point of view, the potential for a big payday in his FA year when he will be 28, is still there. He is not likely to ever be worth more than he will at that age. From the Reds point of view, they can revisit the LTC in two years. At that point his long term value will be better known. If a LTC could not be negotiated, then the Reds would have the option of trading him or retaining him and making a qualifying offer.
It will never be as easy to go long term for pitchers as for position players. Besides the disadvantages of GABP, there is also a greater health risk which a small market team simply cannot take. The Reds can only hope that fair treatment, winning, cohesive teams, and the joy of being a big fish in a smaller pond will carry some weight.
It is not surprising that most of the top prospects are pitchers. Attracting and retaining hitters is a simpler task. A pipeline of home grown pitching is the key to maintaining competitive teams. I expect to see more HS pitchers with big arms drafted and developed slowly so that the Reds can get their full six years.