Originally Posted by RedEye
Where does this "Justin Upton is going to underachieve" thing come from? He has been inconsistent, yes, but he's 25 and has already had two All-Star / MVP caliber seasons. Joey Votto, by comparision, hadn't even emerged as an All-Star until he was 25. Last year Upton struggled with injuries, too -- so there is an alternate explanation for this supposed underachievement. I think it is just as likely that he has a resurgent year in 2013.
There was an article/blurb on SI a couple of years ago talking about Jay Bruce/Justin Upton. The gist of the article was that when players reached the majors at a young age, more often than not they didn't follow the same trajectory a regular major leaguers. The standard rule is that your peak is 28 and then you go downhill after that. IIRC the article was saying that after so many at bats the player is who they are going to be. Many people have pointed out that Upton is still only 25 and believing that he will only improve as he ages. The question is what happens if he doesn't? What happens if 2011 was the best season he will ever have and last season was more of the norm?
When a team gives up on a player who is good, young, and cost controlled for a number of years that should raise red flags.