Originally Posted by RedsManRick
With great run support, you don't need to put up a Cy Young season to win 20+ games. If a guy can make 32 starts and keep the runs allowed better than average, then he's got a chance. There have been 101 20+ win seasons in which the guy started fewer than 35 games and had an ERA+ between 100 and 120; roughly 1 per year on average.
So can Homer win 20? Absolutely. Will he? I'd say it's quite unlikely.
Regarding the run support, I think it's interesting that PECOTA has the Reds projected to score the most runs in the NL. Naturally that doesn't mean that Bailey himself will benefit from high run-support, and I agree with you that 20 wins is still pretty unlikely, but perhaps it isn't as improbable as it might seem based on last season's rather average offensive performance.