Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
'Bama has a 2-2 record against the Top 25. Bad losses, yes, but, this year, who hasn't? Their schedule sets up as less than stellar the rest of the way. A 5-2 record looks more than likely the rest of the way, with an 11-6 overall SEC mark. A win in the SEC Tourney-- maybe two-- and there's no doubt they make it, IMO.
Ole Miss, too, has a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way-- they may very well win out to the SEC Tourney. That'd put them at 12-4 in the league. And of those four losses in five games, three came against Florida, UK, and Mizzou. (One "tough" game against 'Bama left, and that one at home.)
Arkansas beat Florida-- badly. The same Florida team that, IMO, is one of the two or three top teams in basketball this year. They have four tough games left and may make hay if they can catch fire again. What happens if they beat Kentucky and Mizzou? That'd be three Top 25 wins and a 10-6 league record.
Tennessee has three tough games left, but no bad losses. (Their worst looks like Georgia just last week.) If they beat Kentucky, Florida, and Mizzou, they make it. If they beat two of them, they make it (IMO). If they beat one of them, they'll need to win the SEC Tournament.
I'm not saying they'll all make it, but I do believe five-- Florida, Mizzou, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Alabama-- would be in if the NCAA started today. May not be top seeds, but they'll be in.
Current SEC RPIs:
Ole Miss 48
Texas A+M 67
Who did Alabama beat in the top 25? Looking at their schedule, the best win I see is agaianst Kentucky. They played a fairly decent non conference schedule but they really didn't beat anyone. Villanova?
Ole Miss does have a pretty easy road the rest of the way to the SEC tournament, but losing 4 of their last 5 makes them a huge question mark. I think they've been exposed.
Arkansas backed their win over Florida up with a thumping at Vanderbilt. Hello... Goodbye. They'll likely finish 3-3 in their remaining regular season for 19-12, 10-8. That ain't going to get it done.
Tenneesse will likely finish with a losing conference record. They almost have to win out to get back onto the bubble. Looking at how it shapes up the rest of the way, I'd say A+M has a better shot at making it than UT does.
FWIW, on Tuesday Lunardi had Florida in as a 2. UK and Mizzou as 9s and Ole Miss as a 10 and no one else, not even in his "next 8 out." And that was before Kentucky lost to Florida (and lost Noel) and before Ole Miss lost to A+M.
I even think Florida is a bit of a paper tiger... The quality of the SEC is that poor. Tuesday night, watching UK-UF and Bama-UGa and then switching over for Michigan-Michigan State was loke watching the JVs play before the varsity.
FWIW, I think they get 3 in... UF is in, Mizzou and then one of UK or Ole Miss.