Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd
Regarding Phillips' double play rate, within the counting stats it's hard to separate his skill from the opportunities. Clearly having Votto in front of him while batting 4th leads to a spike. However, his his high contact rate paired with his high GB:FB ratio suggests it's a problem for him generally, agnostic of opportunities. At the same time, those skills have positive outcomes as well, such as base advancement through sacrifices that doesn't occur via strikeout.
From what I understand, the positive value of contact-out driven base-advancement and the negative value of double plays tend to offset. Personally, I all else being equal, I think it makes sense to have contact oriented guys like Phillips lower in the order, where double plays hurt less and there is generally still good opportunity for sacrifices that create runs.
Given that, I'd flip Phillips and Frazier. However, as I said earlier I don't think it makes all that much of a difference.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-18-2013 at 03:19 PM.