Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Regarding Phillips' double play rate, within the counting stats it's hard to separate his skill from the opportunities. Clearly having Votto in front of him while batting 4th leads to a spike. However, his his high contact rate paired with his high GB:FB ratio suggests it's a problem for him generally, agnostic of opportunities. At the same time, those skills have positive outcomes as well, such as base advancement through sacrifices that doesn't occur via strikeout.
From what I understand, the positive value of contact-out driven base-advancement and the negative value of double plays tend to offset. Personally, I all else being equal, I think it makes sense to have contact oriented guys like Phillips lower in the order, where double plays hurt less and there is generally still good opportunity for sacrifices that create runs.
Given that, I'd flip Phillips and Frazier. However, as I said earlier I don't think it makes all that much of a difference.
I suggested Frazier hitting second on a different thread. Based on last year's numbers it would make sense. Frazier had a higher OBP and hits more fly balls thus fewer DPs.
Of course, Todd is less proven than Brandon, Todd certainly is more of a power guy, probably will strike out more, not an ideal two hitter.
My best hope is based on BP's 2011 stats. As a leadoff hitter in the lineup that year, in 177 PAs, Brandon had a .417 OBP and clearly adjusted his hitting to maximize lead off skills.
Hopefully BP will figure out that the spot between Choo and Votto is critical in terms of keeping innings/rallies alive. If he adopts a high OBP approach, tries to walk more and hit to right, I'm hoping it will work out.