Originally Posted by mth123
I really like the Choo acquisition, but if money is an issue (and I'm betting it will be) I make a qualifying offer and take a draft pick. The Reds will be losing Arroyo after this year, Bailey after next and then Leake, Latos and Cueto all after 2015. Chapman would be a free agent after 2016 IIRC. The Reds have some kids who will take some of those spots, but the Reds need to keep at least 2 of Chapman (if he works out), Latos, Cueto and Bailey. Seeing what decent under 30 starters are costing these days, its going to take some big bucks to keep any of them IMO. Cueto and Latos may both get 9 figure deals, if Chapman asserts himself in the rotation, he will too. Even Bailey is probably looking at Anibal Sanchez money.
I'd probably draft a college pitcher with the pick from Choo. We can't count on all the kids working out and taking the current group's place.
It all comes back to drafting and development. If you are confident in your drafting and development then you can take some risk predicting the likes of Corcino, Cingrani, Stevenson, and Travieso are able to slot in to the rotation. If you are able to project/predict young cheap talent, then it would be a smart idea to look at improving your offense.
Boras has been burned so far this off season. He had what he thought to be two of the top tier FA's. Probably the ones right behind Hamilton and Grienke. Borne got below what he thought he would get at 4/$48 and Lohse remains unsigned as ST enters its 2nd week. If you could get Choo at the same rate as Borne would you do it? It would pretty much replace Arroyo's contract and give you a top 3 of Choo, Phillips, Votto in the lineup locked up during their prime.
One more thing to consider, with the exception of Hamilton, most of the Reds top prospects are pitchers. A good thing to have, but one to consider when making moves for the future.