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Originally Posted by bucksfan2
It all comes back to drafting and development. If you are confident in your drafting and development then you can take some risk predicting the likes of Corcino, Cingrani, Stevenson, and Travieso are able to slot in to the rotation. If you are able to project/predict young cheap talent, then it would be a smart idea to look at improving your offense.
Boras has been burned so far this off season. He had what he thought to be two of the top tier FA's. Probably the ones right behind Hamilton and Grienke. Borne got below what he thought he would get at 4/$48 and Lohse remains unsigned as ST enters its 2nd week. If you could get Choo at the same rate as Borne would you do it? It would pretty much replace Arroyo's contract and give you a top 3 of Choo, Phillips, Votto in the lineup locked up during their prime.
One more thing to consider, with the exception of Hamilton, most of the Reds top prospects are pitchers. A good thing to have, but one to consider when making moves for the future.
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Arroyo's, Masset's and likely Choo's money and the TV bump are probably already spent on increases for Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.
If we're going to turn over the whole rotation in three years, there'd better be more than 4 or 5 guys to choose from. I think we'll need 10 plus possibilities to fill 5 spots at a championship caliber level. I'm not interested in a rotation filled with 4th and 5th guys that finishes 3rd or 4th in the division. Under the sign Choo and go with prospects in the rotation plan, all three of Corcino, Cingrani and Stephenson need to hit it big to prevent a drop-off. Might happen, but I'd bet against it. They're pitchers. Some will not be able to go through major league line-ups 3 times per game and end-up in the pen. Others will get hurt. Some won't be able to command the zone. Two of the current guys need to be extended at least until one or more of the others steps up to that level. I don't see that happening by 2016.
Fill a couple of those spots with the proven guys on hand and filling it out decently with what is in the system becomes a lot more likely. IMO, that means no money for Choo. Bruce, Hamilton, Votto, Phillips, Frazier, Mesoraco and even Cozart will still be around. Winker or one of the others will need to take over for Ludwick. I think its easier to fill one LF spot from within or with a cheap Free Agent than 3 or 4 rotation spots even if the current propsect list is more dominated by pitchers than by position players. The money goes toward Latos and one of the others IMO. Depending on how Chapman does (and assuming he works out as planned) my priority would be Latos, Chapman, Bailey and Cueto, in that order, before spending money on a big contract for Choo.