Originally Posted by jojo
Top 10% in what?
Based upon WAR, he isn't even in the top 25% (ranked 58th out of 219 starting pitchers who have pitched at least 300 innings between 2006 and 2012).
But keep in mind, he has needed a lot of innings to rack up his WAR of 13.7.
If you limit the list to 1000+ innings, he's at the bottom among guys like John Garland, Joe Saunders, Kyle Lohse, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm... or to look at it another way, ignore innings when populating the list of starters between 2006-2012 and just rank arms by WAR. Arroyo is nestled between John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. That's great company to be in but Arroyo needed 65% more innings to get there. Guys who never made single start during that time like Rivera and Papelbon have more WAR than Arroyo.
He's a rubber arm. Jocketty has put great defenses behind Arroyo for most of Bronson's career as a Red. Arroyo may get into the Reds HOF because of longevity and cult of personality but it's Jocketty who deserves the credit for making the choice tolerable.
All I'm saying is that there probably aren't that many pitchers, who have logged as many innings as Arroyo has over those years, and had a league average or better ERA.
WOY showed that there have been six. That definitely puts Arroyo in the top ten percent, actually, closer to the top one percent of starting pitchers during that time period. To me, that says he's an elite pitcher. Having a league average or better ERA and pitching lots of innings are to two biggest criteria I have for starting pitchers.
As for WAR, it's just not a valuable tool for evaluating pitchers. But even if you think it is, it clearly has a strong bias against pitchers like Arroyo who consistently outperform their peripherals. No matter how much you believe in DIPS, there has to be a point when a player outperforms his peripherals enough times where you have to say that his actual performance is a better judge of his talent than his peripherals. Arroyo is perfect example of this.