Originally Posted by REDREAD
2012: Votto had 14 HR, 0 triples
2011: Votto had 29HR, 3 triples.
Let's be optimistic and say Joey repeats 2011 in 2013
Let's take a simple scenerio.. Assume the leadoff guy has an OBP 350 (maybe that's too optimistic). For simplicity, we will assume 600 plate appearances for both Joey and the leadoff guy. We will also ignore cases where the inning ends between Joey and the leadoff guy..
Seems like of Joey's 29 HR and 3 triples (total 32), the leadoff guy will only be on base for about 11 of them.. The other 199 times the leadoff guy is on base, he's not automatically in scoring postion if he's on 1b. Yes, I am ignoring when the leadoff guy gets an extra base hit, but your point that "anyone on base is automatically in scoring position for Votto" is flawed.
That's what I was thinking. I was gonna break down the numbers like you did this weekend. Though I would be inclined to include doubles.
I think the result is gonna be something to the effect that runners on first are in "scoring position-lite" when Votto is up. If we are talking about that one at bat, I think an average hitter plates a runner from second fairly more often than Votto does a runner on first.