Originally Posted by kaldaniels
That's what I was thinking. I was gonna break down the numbers like you did this weekend. Though I would be inclined to include doubles.
I think the result is gonna be something to the effect that runners on first are in "scoring position-lite" when Votto is up. If we are talking about that one at bat, I think an average hitter plates a runner from second fairly more often than Votto does a runner on first.
I think you have to include doubles...Hamilton will likely score from first base on most doubles. However, I still disagree with the argument of the leadoff hitter not stealing bases in front of Votto.
In truth, Hamilton would be stealing bases in front of the #2 hitter first. As much as I value Votto's bat, there's still a greater-than 60% chance that Votto won't
drive home a runner from first (or second) base. Why take Phillips or whoever is hitting second out of the equation? I have no problem with Phillips driving home the leadoff hitter instead of Votto, or at least moving him to third where the chances of Votto driving him home increase exponentially. Someone else can calculate those odds...