Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?
Steve and doug,
I have absolutely no idea where you are coming up with your % chances that Smith and Constante will make the bigs. Where does 50-60% come from?
Also, I completely disagree that Constante only has a 2-5% chance of pitching in the bigs. I don't have any stats to support this (and likely neither do you), but I would believe that lefties who throw 92-94, with a potential plus slider and a developing change who get paid $700,000+ K bonuses have at least a double digit % chance to make the bigs (this has to be a pretty small sample size), especially if they have never suffered a major arm injury and if they do in the future, they have the most advanced surgery procedures to get them back into shape.
Either way, why would you want decent chance for a cheap bat off the bench who will never be much above replacement level, when you could have a guy who has a lower chance to have a much higher impact (like superdude says, Bryson Smith's are a dime a dozen)? I guess if you truly think he only has a 2-5% chance of cracking the bigs, that is your answer. However, I truly believe Constante has a much higher chance of cracking the bigs than 2-5% and if he does get to the bigs, he will do much more than Bryson Smith will.
There are all sorts of Bryson Smith types that are free agents every year for cheap. If Constante hits his ceiling, he could be the kind of guy who doesn't make it to FA, because he is one of the most valuable guys on your team.