Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"
I will just do a quick case study with lifetime stats of Votto vs. Ludwick, and doubles/triples/home runs for Votto with man on 1st vs. singles, doubles, triples, and home runs for Luwick and 2 men on.
Man on first and Votto up
Votto has a double or triple 7.8% of the time (so 1 run assuming Hamilton scores every time).
Votto hits a HR 3.6% of the time (so 2 runs).
Man on first and second with Ludwick up
Ludwick hits a single 15.7% of the time (Hamilton scores)
Ludwick hits a double or triple 6.6% of the time (so Hamilton scores and say Votto scores half the time, or 1.5 runs)
Ludwick hits a HR 4.9% of the time (3 runs)
It's not even close. Just the simple fact Ludwick's chance of hitting a single doubles the runs vs. Votto's double says enough. Yet add in the fact Luwdick only hits a double or triple 1.2% less and actually has a higher chance of a home run, there is no doubt first and second with Ludwick up is way superior than 1st with Votto up. It's so massive a difference no one in their right mind would walk Votto unless the man on second is the tying or winning run late in the game.
Yes, there are the times Votto hits a single or walks, and then Ludwick gets a hit. Yet is a percentage of a percentage and doesn't make up for the difference.
Votto is not superman. He makes outs more than 50% of the time there is a man on first. I would take a Hamilton steal, a Votto walk, and Ludwick up any day of the week vs. Hamilton sitting on first with Votto up. If Hamilton can steal bases 75% of the time, the Reds run chances go up.
Last edited by scott91575; 02-25-2013 at 08:51 PM.