Originally Posted by Superdude
This just shouldn't be a risk if anyone is watching him. A pitcher who is a liability in the #5 spot is pretty easy to spot for anyone, let alone a top flight pitching coach like Price. The fact that he's on board with the project tells me there isn't nearly the downside you're speaking of. And if Chapman comes close to the worst case scenario, the pressure's gonna be immense to move him back to the pen. No way that lasts until August.
But if they are going to get him a chance, they can't really pull the trigger that quickly. I'd say nothing's proven until he has 20 starts or so. I thought the position that every one is being so loud about is that he needs to be given a chance. If he has three or four starts where he struggles, putting him back in the pen so quickly isn't really giving him a chance. I think a real chance requires enough times through the rotation that a poor season will have an adverse impact on the entire staff.
I agree that Price in favor of it is reassuring, but there are a lot of knowledgable people who don't think his stuff will translate to starting. The two things that make him successful as a reliever are throwing 100 MPH+ on a regular basis and a big breaking slider that guys chase out of the zone. I wonder if either of those things will work going through a line-up three times. The 100 MPH+ days are probably over in the rotation and the slider is going to have to be thrown for a strike or guys will learn to lay off of it through repitition (which isn't really happening for three outs per game 50 times each year).
If the fastball is dialed back and the slider is thrown over the plate, will they become hittable as time wears on? I think its a real question. I'd guess he'll still have enough stuff on his fastball to get some hitters out, but how often and how the other stuff plays will be key IMO and I think its still an open question.