Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter
Here is my idea of how the pecking order of the bullpen should go. First determine lefty/right effectiveness. Then determine how much you think each pitcher should pitch, and match that up to the percentage of high leverage situations your team would normally see.
Say there are six relievers in your bullpen. One guy is a long man, one guy is a LOOGY, and the remaining 4 are just put into a pecking order. Ranked by order...
1) Should see the top 25% of high leverage situations (assuming he can handle 25%, that can be adjusted depending on pitcher durability). This will be 1 run or tied ballgames, mostly in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. When a game gets near that point he should be warming, and put it when it reaches that point.
2) Should see the next 25%.
3) and so on, you get the idea
This of course would be dynamic depending on workload and righty/lefty situations. Yet today you see a guy like Dusty almost always only use his closer in the 9th inning when it's a 3 run lead or less. Heck, I have seen him trot out a guy in the 9th and then put in the closer when it becomes a save situation even though it's still lower leverage. Using your best pitcher only for save opportunities is simply wasting him on games where you don't need your best pitcher.