Originally Posted by MikeThierry
You're right in an aggregate sense that Arroyo has had a slightly better career. However Arroyo has been pretty much the same pitcher his entire career with random years being better and worse. With Lohse, he has show that he has got better in recent years. Look at RA Dickey as a reference point for this. Dickey has had a mediocre career on a whole but has been stellar the past three years since he's picked up the knuckleball. Kyle Lohse learned to pitch in St. Louis instead of just throwing like he did prior to coming there.
The reason why St. Louis gave up on him (more accurately didn't sign him to a long term deal) is because they have a lot of young pitching with a ton of upside that would have been blocked if he remained there. It has nothing to do with the Cardinals feeling that he is somehow bad nor does that mean he wouldn't be a positive contributor to the Reds starting rotation.
Meh. Arroyo has started 29+ games per season every year since 2004. I'm not big on wins and losses, but he's won 10+ games in 7 of those seasons, and in the other 2 seasons he won 9 in each. Dude is a workhorse. And he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. in 4 of those seasons. And I think we can all put an asterisk next to his 2011 season where he took the ball to start 32 games despite having Mono and recovering from it in a weakened state, which lead to his worst e.r.a. of 5.07.
Then there's Lohse. In 12 seasons of starting, he's won 10+ games 5 times. He's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. only 3 times in 12 seasons. He is coming off of his best season which conveniently fell in a contract year. And in 12 seasons, he has started 29+ games 8 times. Fairly durable although he had a couple of injury-plagued seasons recently in 2009 and 2010.
I think with Arroyo, you know what you're getting. With Lohse, it's more of a crapshoot.
If the Reds got 2012 version of Lohse, I'd say they run away with the National League pennant. But you can't predict these things.