Originally Posted by bucksfan2
The Reds went from having question marks in their rotation as well as bullpen to having one of the best pen's in the league and having a damn good rotation.
This is a win now move. Personally I applaud the organization for making win now moves instead of constantly looking two years down the road.
I really don't understand this assertion that the Reds had question marks in their pen.
With Chapman, the Reds bullpen had the NL's best ERA (2.65) and 2nd best FIP (3.26).
Removing Chapman, the Reds bullpen had a 2.88 ERA and a 3.59 ERA. Those would have been good for 3rd and 4th in the NL respectively. Absent Chapman, we had one of the best bullpen's in the NL last year -- measured by actual runs or skills.
Now, we wouldn't have been replacing Chapman with replacement level performance. He have been replaced by, essentially, 30-40 more innings from each Broxton and Hoover.
Yes, without a doubt the bullpen is stronger with Chapman than without him. But the potential
upgrade from Leake (or Arroyo if he falls apart again) to Chapaman is significantly greater than the downgrade from Chapman to his bullpen replacements. The Reds bullpen was, is and will be a strength of this team regardless of where Chapman spends his time this year.
If you don't believe that, please feel free to play around in my "projection machine" and test your assumptions.
Given the Reds odd fascination with Logan Ondrusek, putting Chapman back to the pen probably costs Hoover a spot. While the upgrade in the rotation may have very well been smaller than many of us hope, the upgrade in the pen is not nearly as big as people make it out to be.
I'm holding out hope that they're announcing the Kris Medlan plan.