Originally Posted by jojo
The Mike Leake "is or isn't" argument really needs context.
Here is Leake compared to the NL average starter from 2010-2012:
10' -'12 K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP
NL ave 7.04 2.92 45.0 4.01 3.98
Leake 6.03 2.38 48.9 4.23 4.43
Here is Leake's 2012 compared to the average NL starter in 2012:
2012 K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP
NL ave 7.28 2.81 45.4 4.04 3.97
Leake 5.83 2.06 48.9 4.58 4.42
Putting Leake in context indicates he's been about 10 runs worse than average per 200 IP (i.e. 1 WAR below average) based upon his peripherals. He has below average velocity and above average contact rates (or below average "miss bat" rates). The biggest pluses he's shown so far? He can throw strikes and doesn't have much in the way of platoon splits. He has limited trade value as AL teams wouldn't likely bite. That's a back end starter. Remove the influence of the Reds defense from behind him and I seriously doubt this conversation would even be had by fans.
BTW, xFIP wasn't included because it innapropriately makes Leake's numbers look better by removing a serious flaw-his consistent tendency to give up too many homers. For those who want to argue Leake is Doug Fister the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.
Thats the context of what Mike Leake has been and is.... If one wants to argue that Leake will be something dramatically different going forward, that's a different argument and one is welcome to have at it.
Liked and quoted for truth. Never cared for Leake, and i really think when talking mental makeup about Chapman, keep in mind this is the guy that was/is a soon to be millionaire that shoplifted t-shirts. He isn't the poster boy for mental makeup.
So beyond tired of the mental makeup theory. Try this. Have Mat Latos (who has been known to be a bit of a flake/immature) be uprooted to say, South Korea. Have him leave his wife behind, and make it so he cannot contact anyone he knows from the U.S. Let him get comfortable with a new culture, oh and throw in a ton of money, so, beforehand he'd have to have been making almost nothing. Make him a superstar in Korea too, where he's interviewed constantly through interpreters.
Anyone have any thoughts on if he might have a few flaky moments?
Chapman as a starter for April and May, limit is IP as much as possible. If it lookslike his secondary pitches aren't strong enough to keep him in the rotation, then ease him back into the backend, no harm. Because, IMO, he is a better pitcher in EVERY ASPECT than Mike Leake, I think he can succeed. At worst he's a wash to the best Leake can deliver.