Originally Posted by RedEye
I don't know how many times I've read the phrase "There's no guarantee that Chapman will be a dominant starter" in the reasoning of posters (not you). To me, that sounds like, word-for-word, a demand for a guarantee.
Well, I think I've said that.
The point is, the results of Chapman starting might be Leake-like or worse.
Chapman's velocity will drop.
His control of the slider comes and goes.
His changeup and splitter are works in progress (and they are saying he's having trouble consistently controlling them in spring training).
In short, Chapman has great tools, but it's questionable how he will perform as a starter this year.
He might be the next Randy Johnson, he might be the next Edison Volquez.
I still think it's worth trying, but I won't be upset if the Reds decide that he's just not ready this year or maybe its' better to have a closer for the remainder of his contract (as opposed to investing 2-3 years for him to grow as a starter)
I don't think all the pro-starting people are guaranteeing that Chapman will be an ace. Likewise the pro-relieving people aren't saying Chapman is guaranteed to flop.