Originally Posted by M2
IMO, it's selling Leake extremely short to view him as nothing more than a #5 guy. I expect him to spend most of the rest of the 2010s as an above average starter. He's got four pitches, a great competitive brain, and his command and velocity should both be on the improve.
Had he spent 2010 and 2011 dominating the minors (and he would have done exactly that), then we'd be looking at 2012 in a far different light. Instead he broke straight through to the majors and we've seen more of his learning curve as a result. Remember, almost no one can make the jump straight to the majors from the college ranks. It takes a lot of talent to do it and survive.
Leake is 25 and he's a good bet for a K/BB of 3.00. His best day are ahead of him and I suspect his best days are going to be pretty good.
Or.. He's an immature headcase. One that was poised to make millions who decided to shoplift t-shirts. He's got no K pitch, is defense dependent, and for a guy with a rep as a groundball machine, gives up a ton of HR's in a park and division that isn't kind to pitchers that do that. He's also very hittable, and the harder he throws, the less movement he gets on his FB. He's a younger miracle whip version of Elizardo Ramirez, without the high draft pick pedigree. He's going to give up 12 baserunners per 9 via hit and walk, and probably 1 HR every time he starts. As a #5 starter, he's ok, but If i lived in Cincinnati, and saw he was pitching, I wouldn't waste the money on a ticket.