View Single Post
03-29-2013, 01:33 PM   #14
texasdave
ZCTRMTP!!!!!

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 10,358
Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony Why not? Wouldn't that mean the Reds have a ton (four of them) of better pitchers against other teams' lesser starters?
Bill James has a formula to estimate how many games a team with one winning percentage can be expected to win against a team with another winning percentage. I used his formula to see how your suggestion would work out. (Mainly because I have had that very same thought.) It turns out that a team would win slightly (very slightly) more games doing what you suggested.

So I just assumed the following winning percentages for each position in the rotation from 1 through 5. I assumed the same winning percentages for Reds' pitchers as opponents' pitchers.

1 - .600
2 - .550
3 - .500
4 - .450
5 - .400

Here are the results: In the upper chart, if Number 1s matched up against Number 1s on down the line, it would work out as one might expect, with 81 wins on the seasons for Reds' opponents. In the lower chart, if the opponents' number 1 matched up with the Reds' number 5, and the Reds had the advantage at the other four slots, the result would be 80.8 expected wins for the opponents. So, you are right by the slimmest of margins. The Reds would win 81.2 games doing it your way instead of 81.0 matching up 1s vs. 1s, etc.

Code:
```OPP	REDS	WPCT	GAMES	XWINS	TOT-XWINS
.600	.600	.500	33	16.5	81.0
.550	.550	.500	33	16.5
.500	.500	.500	32	16.0
.450	.450	.500	32	16.0
.400	.400	.500	32	16.0

OPP	REDS	WPCT	GAMES	XWINS	TOT-XWINS
.600	.400	.692	33	22.8	80.8
.550	.600	.449	33	14.8
.500	.550	.450	32	14.4
.450	.500	.450	32	14.4
.400	.450	.449	32	14.4```
__________________
Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!