Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake
ERA tells us what actually happened. It might not be a great tool to determine what will happen going forward, but it does quantify what happened.
FIP is no better from a quantification standpoint, since it gives no credit for what happens in the field of play (which we are now learning is not accurate).
Leake's SIERA last year was actually pretty flattering (4.01). For his career, it's 4.02. That puts Leake No. 67 out of those 132 pitchers, which is squarely as a middle-of-the-rotation guy.
In order to make Leake look bad by any measure, one has to ignore his ability to induce grounders and everything that happens in the field of play, which we know is not very intuitive since it is a very important ability.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda