Originally Posted by PuffyPig
Your conclusion may well be right, but to ignore how this particular pitcher does against RH and LH pitchers is ignoring half of the relevant stats.
Downs gives up a .488 OPS last year vs. LH hitters, .813 vs. RH hitters. That shouldn't be ignored.
Let's look at the three year splits as we did the hitters:
Career vs LHB .604
2010 vs LHB .488
2011 vs LHB .483
2012 vs LHB .488
3 year Average (roughly) .486
Career vs RHB .762
2010 vs RHB .637
2011 vs RHB .581
2012 vs RHB .813
3 year average (roughly) .677
If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699
If you take Phillips rough three year average vs LHP .800(assuming you walk Votto, keep Downs in to pitch to Phillips so he can pitch to Bruce) and Down's rough three year average vs RHP .677 and average them together you get .738.
Roughly 40 OPS points advantage for Phillips over Votto in that situation.
THEN you can get into the non-stat part of the game. Votto was 0 for the season, and you could say he was due. Phillips already had a big hit in the game, and might not have been due AND he is a threat for a DP.
Advantage Votto, IMO.