Originally Posted by puca
Or it doesn't and you don't. Same could be said with a 4-run lead, 5-run lead or a 6-run lead. The fact that a closer is used with a 3-run lead in the ninth has less to do with the chances of holding the lead than it has to do with the fact that it is a save situation.
I don't have a HUGE problem with what Dusty did, but now we are going into the first game of the St. Louis series without our top 2 (and possibly 3) bullpen arms. That probably leaves LeCure or Hoover as the defacto closer - which means Para and Simon are in setup roles. They need Latos to come up big.
With all that said, I don't for a minute believe Dusty wouldn't use Chapman or Broxton if the game is close - although I would rather he air on the side of caution this early in the season.
As RMR did, you beg the question. The assumption is that Dusty brings in the closer because it is a statistical save. I think he brings them in because a 3 run lead is two guys on and a blast. He also likes to bring guys in to start an inning and avoid the "fireman" approach. I honestly don't think the decision is based on the stat, but the situation.
There is also the assumption that the bottom of the order shouldn't require your top reliever. Yet, I personally witnessed a Marshall blown save that started out with 7-8-9 (which I believe was the last time he was the regular closer). There is just a lot of assumptions people make that sound great in large numbers, but on a day to day, trying to get a win basis that the manager lives in, he knows how quickly a 3 run lead turns into the tying or go ahead run standing in scoring position. I can't blame a guy for trying to keep fires from getting started rather than waiting until the fire is there as a way to manage the bullpen in the late innings. And as we saw last year, there were not too many times that this style bit Dusty in the rear with guys "unavailable."