Originally Posted by HometownHero
This post of yours actually makes my point for me, they're going to lose the good BP arms and established players they have now and replace them with young guys who aren't all going to jump right in and be as good if they do ever pan out and many of the players you list will not all make it at all.
So with that they aren't actually improving they are keeping a Status quo at best unless the package them for a position of real need like SS, and keeping the Status quo isn't going to be good enough when Wainwright, Molina and Holliday all start to fade due to age while making a premium price.
Cards fans have a massive, MASSIVE delusion that every player they draft will make it when it just doesn't work that way for anyone even the best of the best in the Top-100. Which is funny to me because they have had a ton that flopped but they still live with their heads in the same on the success rate of minor league players.
This is a good write up on actually success rates...
We have 75th overall prospect Cozart now in parts of his 3rd year with a .245/.282/.401/.682 career line we also have 14th overall Mesoraco with a line of .202/.278/.345/.624 also now in year three so to expect these guys to replace productive players and do just as well is comical since in baseball some make it, some make it big but most don't make it at all.
When you have all these players all playing the same position they do get in the way of each other, once some make the show and the others are blocked they lose their prospect shine or will get moved for MLB need and that top system drops to the middle of the pack quick, and if one of those guys don't pan out and they are forced to use several of the others to go out and trade for a cheap player like the Reds did with Latos it hurts the depth even more.
This is why the organization rankings are cyclical. In 2011 the Cardinals were 24th, then went to 10th then to 1st on the back of not making and big moves and getting some extra picks. KC was #1 in 2011 then went to 2nd and now are at 18th. When the Cards were 24th the Reds were 6th we graduated some guys and traded some for our big league holes and now are 15th its just how baseball works.
All the problems you list are future problems. They are problems that every single team in the MLB will have to address over the next 5 years or so. The facts are the facts. The cardinals have a very good major league ball club and the best minor league system. Their isn't an organization in America that does not envy the position of the card's farm system.
You also say, "cardinals fans think...." What an overarching generalization for which you have 0 proof of. There are probably 10 million cardinal fans in America and the number who pay any sort of attention to the minor leagues is probably a fraction of that. That being said, I'll still respond. Some card's fans may be delusional. That is created because right now, the cards farm is almost invincable. In the last three years or so they have brought up Freese, Craig, Descalso, M. Carpenter, LAnce Lynn and Jay. None of the six were ever highly touted prospects, yet all of them have become starters and four have become All-Star quality starters. And now, the organization is loaded with highly touted prospects and people are excited to see just how good they can be if the one's who weren't even ranked have become so good. So there is probably a little over confidence in the farm i'll give you that.
You also bring up Cozart and Mesoraco. The reason they haven't blossomed like many would hope has a name, and that name is Dusty. Dusty Baker is a great coach of veterans, but there isn't anyone i'd want less to coach young players than Dusty Baker. His track record has proven that he is awful at dealing with young players, IMO because he just doesn't want too. He wants to treat them like rookies their whole career. The Cardinals don't do that at all. John Kruk said it in the post-season when the Kozma was playing WAY over his head. Kruk said (and i paraphrase), "The cardinals don't make rookies feel like rookies. From the players up to the owners, the second you walk into that clubhouse youre a cardinal." Kozma was treated the same way the organization would have treated Derek Jeter, and because of that he didn't feel like he had to prove himself. He just had to play.
Also, you say the cards had a bunch that flopped. Who? Rasmus is one. The cards should have known he would flop because he had a piss-poor attitude and tried to get the cards to hire his dad to be his personal hitting coach. Two years later its looking like one of the best trades in the card's recent history. Who else flopped? Anthony reyes? that was six seasons ago now. Brendan Ryan? He can't hit but he might be the best defensive short stop in baseball. Can you please fill me in on the flops the cards have had? This should be supremely difficult for you because until Mozeliak took over they almost never had ranked players in their farm system. If a prospect never even is ranked, then he can't flop.