Originally Posted by RedsManRick
While it's fair to point out that outliers have an abnormally strong effect in small samples, we should be careful about taking that too far. 5 games is 25% of the season so far. If we were to take out the top 25% of games in a full season, we'd probably see a similar impact on the average runs per game.
Perhaps this top 25% is especially high, but taking the best things away and lamenting the rest can be a silly game to play if you read too much in to it.
If you want to find out how good or how bad an offense is, you need to take into consideration outliers. Every team in baseball is going to have games where they bust out offensively. Every team with professional ball players is going to find themselves in a game where everyone his hitting. When the opposing team goes from trying to win the game to trying to end the game as soon as possible.
The question becomes if the Reds are struggling to score runs are 5 games of an offensive explosion more indicative of their performance that 16 games of ineptitude?