Re: Accounting for the bullpen
Originally Posted by bucksfan2
The Houston Astros, arguably one of the worst teams in baseball history has games this season already where they have scored 8, 8, 16 and 10 runs. One less offensive outburst than the Reds. I would contend that outlier offensive games are common for every team in baseball. The Reds, a team with WS hopes and the Astros, a team with #1 draft pick hopes are separated by a couple of runs when it comes to offensive outburst games....
I guess my theory is that outlier offensive games aren't special to a good offensive team, they are common throughout baseball. If there is something unusual about a teams offensive output then it raises some alarms. If your leaving runners on base at an abnormally high level that raises an alarm. Baseball is a game of failure, but when you are failing at an abnormally high rate then you should have some concerns.
I would argue that, 20 games in to the season, any explanation other than "Small Sample Size" is grossly premature. As you point out, in a tiny handful of games, things like individual horrible pitches have a significant influence. You should consider looking at a full season's worth of data across all teams in MLB to see how this plays out over time.
I'm actually pulling data together and will take a look at this myself. So, we'll see.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.