Originally Posted by Old school 1983
I said obp correlates to runs. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. Correlation is not causation. Obp correlates with runs scored. It doesn't cause them. RBI and situational hitting do. If obp caused runs then every base runner would score. That's not the case. There is a correlation between obp and runs meaning generally higher the obp, then there is a probability that you score more runs. But RBI directly cause runs. Basic fact. So while two stats can correlate, it doesn't mean that one directly causes the other. It could be some other factor like RBI.
For example. You could have based loaded every inning and not score a run. But you could hit one homer and win one to nothing. There is a strong correlation between obp and runs but RBI cause runs.
You need a balance of both. Right now the reds are getting strong obp numbers but pretty lack luster RBI numbers from everyone but Phillips. The issue is choo is on. No one gets a hit after or at least gets him over. Then votto bats gets on, and if Phillips doesn't knock him in the next two guys Bruce and Frazier are susceptible to the K which yields nothing with runners on. With young in the two spot I think choo would be at least moved over more if not joined on base by young, and it'd give votto more chances at RBI than he is getting. At that point our two best hitters aside from choo would be getting real chances to cause runs with RISP rather than just Phillips followed by two up and down feast or famine guys.
You are close but no cigar. Ignore strikeouts. They are not the enemy here. I agree they are bad in certain situations but historically you trade Ks for power. Willie Mays did not shorten up...nor Robby or Mantle. The proper stat to pair with obp in re scoring is SP. High enough slugging with good obp will result in lots of runs. The Reds you call out over and over Frazier and Cozart especially and big time Jay Bruce...are striking out at record clips but not slugging per norms. Add that Mes has been dinking and singling when his minor league forte was slugging and the offense has a problem. Is it strikeouts? Not really other than they are making outs and struggling to drive the ball when they do make contact. 3 of these guys are sophomores and "sophomore jinx" is reality. No curse but the fact teams have a full off season to analyze film and develop full scouting reports. Mes, Frazier and Cozie need to adjust to that...add in the frustrations of the lineup (even Joey seems to be pressing now - ever seen so many bad swings from him as lately? Think he doesn t feel the weight of being the leader?) Frazier? He won't finish hitting .230 but its his sp you need to look at. Same for Cozart. Mes and Bruce I have confidence in. Frazier and Cozart had less impressive minors. Given that Cozart is gold glove caliber just bat him 8th and forget about it. Not his fault Dusty misuses him. Mes will hit and hit for loeer if he gets to play. Dusty again. Frazier has actually played a very very good 3B so far something you continually get wrong Old School. Looking at range and glove he's been quite solid. Again its SP which is all from the first few games. Give me a .500 SP from Todd and he can strikeout all he does and who cares. This is by design a high K high Slugging lineup. Choo was brought to fix the leadoff hole. Everyone else wad supposed to slug at high rates and Walt + company knew there would be scads of Ks. They just figured there'd be lots of doubles and homers as an offset. So far that hasn't proven out.