Originally Posted by 757690
Honestly, if I'm the Cubs, I don't make this offer.
Left handed firstbaseman with a nice bat are pretty easy to find. I don't see anything special about Rizzo, or any need to commit any money toward him. I'd rather ride him during his cheap years, and if he becomes too expensive after that, I'd be confident I could find a suitable, affordable replacement.
Agreed. Too many people don't consider the actual downside here. Lets say he's a 3-4 WAR player every year, how much does he cost the Cubs? They have control for the next 5 years anyway.
I get the value and if I had to bet, I'd say the Cubs come out ahead, but I think people fail to set the appropriate baseline of he would have earned given the range of possible performance outcomes and account the guarantee aspect.
It's a good deal, but with less clearance than many are suggesting. Most of his relative cheapness over that timeframe was already a sure thing.