Originally Posted by kaldaniels
Baseball Ref and Cots both have his service time at 0.168 going into this year. That can't be right can it?
But anyway, he would have been arb-eligble in 2015 (Super 2).
So...trying to guess the savings (these are my guesses on what his salary would be if he is a solid 1B bat.)
2013 .5 MM
2014 .5 MM
2015 3 MM
2016 5 MM
2017 8 MM
2018 11 MM
2019 15 MM
Which totals 43 MM. So all in all, the extension really doesn't save that much...but it does give cost certainty. If I'm a Cubs fan, I like this deal. I like these type of deals for teams, so I'm biased, I will freely admit.
That doesn't change my above opinion a few posts back that you can easily find a plug in option for 1B cheaply on a consistent basis.
And if he does tank, this contract is just money lost in the couch cushions for the Cubs, which is important to note when evaluating this deal.
That's basically my point...the upside of the deal is relatively small, maybe you save a couple million. The downside is he could have a career ending injury tomorrow and you are out $41 million. This is bad risk benefit analysis IMO. I would never bet $41 million to make $2 million in the stock market that's just terrible investing....