Originally Posted by kaldaniels
That's not the upside though. The upside is that he becomes a perennial Allstar and the Cubs save 10-15 million when the options are all said and done. And that is not considering salary inflation over 7 years.
OK let's take a closer look then...
Let's assume for a moment that Rizzo somehow
rises to Joey Votto's level. (Votto BTW is a far better defender IMO for what it's worth. But in any case....)
During the same 7 year time period Votto made $47 million....so the MAX upside is 6 million if
he becomes an MVP in 2 years. The MAX downside is $43 million. (Don't forget the $2 million dollar buyout the Cubs would have to exercise even if he gets injured tomorrow)
But wait...let's consider the option years!! Even if you consider the 2 option years at $14.5 million each and compare it to Votto's contract who makes $14 and $20 million its still only an additional savings of $5 million.
So...in the best case scenario option years included, if all the moons align and Rizzo becomes an MVP in 2 years and arises to Votto like status then the Cubs will have saved $11 million in the best
possible scenario. In the worst
possible scenario they would have lost $43 million.
Investing $43 million for a max return of $11 million is generally a bad investment IMO. Honestly though if you truly believe in the player it's really not THAT bad of an investment. However, the kicker is you could have easily waited 2-3 years and had a far better evaluation of the player and still likely payed the same price. THAT's why this is a bad move IMO. This has nothing to do with Rizzo's talent as a player, it's just simple math and economics and timing.
P.S.-I think people are forgetting how INSANELY uncompensated MLB players are for the first 5-6 years of their career under the current collective bargaining agreement no matter how good they perform. And it's an understandable shotgun reaction....but when you do the math it just doesn't add up.