Originally Posted by 757690
People keep making the same mistake when evaluating each team's talent.
The question isn't whose playing better now. Duh, it's the Cardinals. Just look at the standings.
The question is "Is the Cardinals (sic) 25-man roster more talented than the Reds roster?"
Talent is about what production to expect from each player over the full 2013 season.
To do this involves projection (happy guesses) and analysis, not just quoting what they players have already done this year. What each player has done this year is only meaningful in how it informs our overall understanding of their overall talent.
Here's my happy guesses and analysis:
(Note, I think it's best to compare position by position for defense alone, and to use their lineups to compare their offense.)
Catcher - Molina over Hanigan/Mesoraco
1B - Votto over Craig
2B - Phillips over Delscaso
3B - Frazier over Freese
SS - Cozart over Kozma
LF - Holliday over Ludwick/Paul et all
CF - Jay over Choo
RF - Bruce over Beltran
1. Choo over Jay
2. Beltran over Cozart
3. Votto over Holliday
4. Phillips over Craig
5. Molina over Bruce
6. Frazier over Freese
7. Push mishmosh for both teams
8. Hanigan/Mesoraco over Kozma
1. Push Wainright = Cueto
2. Latos over Miller
3. Arroyo over Lynn
4. Garcia over Bailey
5. Leake over Westbrook
CL. Chapman over Mujica
RSU Broxton over Rosenthal
LSU Marshall over Choate
MR Reds over Cards
Overall, it's not even close. Reds clearly have more overall talent. Whether that talent will prevail in 2013, we shall have fun finding out.
Broxton over Rosenthal... really?
Phillips offense over Craig's offense when Phillips put up a 97 OPS+ in 2012 compared to Craig's 138 OPS+ and this year Phillips is putting up a 107 OPS+ vs. Craig's 115 OPS+? I think you're a bit generous in saying that Phillips will outproduce Craig in the course of a given year.
Jay has been hitting in the 7 hole and you completely leave out Matt Carpenter in your analysis. Choo is still better than Carpenter but it pushes Jay down to the 7 hole. I think Jay is a better 7 hole option than what the Reds have.
Arroyo over Lynn? I'm not really understanding the Reds fans fascination with him. He's a decent pitcher but Lynn had a better WAR season than he did last year, better FIP, and is years younger than he is. In fact, I would argue that if Arroyo is your 3rd best pitcher, the Reds pitching staff is in trouble. I would at best put him as the Reds 5th starter.