Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF
I'll start this with the caveat that I'm skeptical of the defensive stats that place some hypothetical run value (any stats that do that actually), but for sake of argument, what would the total equation work out to if Bruce and Choo switched positions? Assuming Bruce would be an upgrade in CF, I'd make a corresponding assumption that Choo would be a downgrade in RF. Since the Reds rotation and bullpen are predominantly Right-Handed, I think we can assume that teams are going to continue to load up with LH Bats against the Reds. With those bats, I presume, hitting a fairly decent percentage of their OF Balls in play to the pull side (RF) would the net gain in Centerfield less the net loss in RF really amount to anything? Bruce has saved a lt of runs playing RF. Would Choo save as many or would the gain in CF be wiped out by a loss in RF?
Assume Choo moves to LF and Robinson moves into CF. Choo has a plus arm out there. I honestly don't know enough about Robinson's arm to say, but if Robinsons arm is a downgrade and some guys start taking extra bases on balls in Right Center, how much is that worth? I can see the net gain in CF vs LF being a little bigger for the Reds. One reason an unsure fielder in LF is better than in RF or CF is the proximity to 3B. With the shorter throw, the LF can be a little slower to the ball on base hits to LF with a lot less risk of a runner on 1B moving to 3B. Similarly, a slight bobble on a hit would open the door for a guy moving first to 3rd a lot more in RF or CF than it would in LF (arm strength is obvious, but with Choo that's a non-issue). Couple the arm factor potentially allowing extra bases in CF as compared to Choo's plus arm with the downgrade in LF and I wonder how many runs a switch of Choo and Robinson would really be worth. Choo's plus arm would be mostly wasted in LF, but its not a major factor unless Robinson has a poor arm.
My suspicion is that a switch would accomplish a lot less than most on here think it would. There is no guarantee that Bruce would be much better in CF and we know that he's pretty darned good in RF and a switch may serve to do no more than remove a strength with little to no real upgrade in CF. I personally don't think Choo is as bad as he's made out to be. I've seen a few plays that aren't being made, and one on Sunday was costly, and he's certainly below average, but I think he's adequate out there. If there was an obvious switch that could be made, I'd surely make it, but the switches available internally aren't a sure thing. Robinson/Heisey instead of Choo and his splitty LH bat against a LHP seems pretty obvious. Beyond that, the solutions proposed against RHP are iffy and I suspect wouldn't accomplish much.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Last edited by mth123; 06-11-2013 at 04:00 AM.