Thread: Can you explain why... View Single Post
06-20-2013, 07:22 PM   #3
wolfboy
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Re: Can you explain why...

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Raisor I can. Sample size.
I get that, but on a more nuts and bolts level, what's driving it in the calculation?

From FanGraphs:

Quote:
 xFIP Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.
Quote:
 Here is the full formula for xFIP. Notice how it is almost exactly the same as the formula for FIP, with the lone difference being how each accounts for home runs: xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
So is it his unusually high HR/FB rate in that short sample size that skews the numbers so far apart?
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