Originally Posted by Benihana
The last 3 HS arms the Reds took in the first round (Stephenson, Lotzkar, and Bailey) all had K/9 rates over 10 pitching in Dayton the year after they were drafted.
Travieso's is currently half of that number (and wasn't much higher last year in the AZL). It's obviously very early still, but something to monitor nonetheless.
(That's saying nothing of the 5.14 career ERA and 1.47 WHIP - not as important as the K's for a developing arm, but still...)
There is obviously not a huge sample size to go on, but there is no WAY Travieso ranks ahead of Winker or Ervin on my prospect rankings.
The previous three guys were also much more experienced pitchers coming out of high school too. Homer Bailey led his team to the Texas state title as a starting pitcher as a freshman in high school. Nick Travieso didn't start until he was a senior. Bailey was throwing 60-80 innings in high school, then probably 40 more for travel ball each year. So that is what, 300 innings or so head start on a guy like Travieso as a starting pitcher? That is rather significant.
He is going to take time. He is not your normal high school first round pitcher. Maybe think of him like Devin Mesoraco. The tools were there, but the production wasn't for a while. Then it all clicked and he blew up. We don't know whether or not Travieso will blow up like Mesoraco did. But the tools are there for it. The key will be refining them.