Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Originally Posted by nate
Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.
It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.
Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.
Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.
Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner