Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices
Originally Posted by 757690
The lie is assuming that K's, BB's and HR's are completely within the pitcher's influence, and assuming that hits and runs allowed are completely outside of a pitcher's influence. This attitude positions ERA and DIP's stats as an either/or.
In reality, a pitcher does not have complete control over how many strikeouts, BB's or HR's he allows, nor does he lack complete control over how many hits and runs he allows. He may have more control over how many K's, BB's and HR's he gives up, but he still has significant control over how many hits and runs he gives up, and there are limits to the control he has over K's, BB's and HR's.
My argument is that peripherals alone don't tell all we can learn about a pitcher in order to evaluate him. The elements in ERA that are missing from xFIP and the like are very informative and need to be included as well.
This is a very common narrative this, let's completely ignore how BABIP regresses version of pitcher controlling hit rate means defensive independent metrics are bunk and era is awesome narrative. But the elephants in the closet are that a pitcher's k and BB rates are very stable and there are a precious few arms that have consistently abnormally low babip. Want to argue that babip isn't precise enough to capture a pitcher's true ability to control hits? Well, then one can't trumpet era as any kind of reflection of pitcher skill.
The elements that are missing from FIP are the things that would cause Leake and Arroyo's era to dramatically increase simply from moving them from pitching in front of the reds defense and plopping them on the mound in front of the Astros' defense.
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