Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey
What, what? Of course you should judge a trade AFTER it happens. Usually about 5 years after the fact is best, so we're still 2-3 years away from that for the Wood/Marshall trade, but I'm confident in saying the Cubs won that one big time.
Doug, your rationale is baffling. It would be akin to a college football or college basketball fan saying "You don't judge a recruiting class on what they accomplish after they sign with the school, you judge the recruiting class based on what they did in high school."
Or, to use a professional sports example, it would be like you saying, "You don't judge a free agent signing on what happens after the signing, you judge it based on what happened before the contract was signed." Because, I'm sure the Angels are loving all those stats Pujols put up for the Cardinals. That sure is helping them now that he stinks.
I will say whoever was responsible for trading Frank Robinson years ago is fully on board with not judging trades after they happen.
Wow, Doug. Will give you a mulligan on this one I suppose. But of course the best way to judge trades is after they happen. And sports fans/media do it all the time. We look back on trades and judge who won. Example: The Latos trade. We won that one.
You can give me a mulligan if you want, but I won't ever use it. I stand strongly on what I said.
If you trade for a guy with clean mechanics who can throw 97 MPH and has had good numbers in his career, then three weeks later he blows his shoulder out and he comes back and never tops 91 and can't get it done, does it mean you made a bad trade? Not in my mind. If we had a time machine would you take it back? Of course, but that doesn't mean it was a bad idea to make the trade, it just means it didn't work out.
If I am playing blackjack and the dealer is showing a 5 and I am sitting on 10, I am going to double down on that. It was the right move. If the dealer flips over a 6 and then gets a 10 it doesn't mean I made a bad bet, it means it didn't work out. There is a big difference between a bad trade and a trade that didn't work out.
I will judge a trade by how things looked at the time they were made and the information that was available at the time.