Originally Posted by RedEye
It is a shame that he doesn't speak the language that most likely scores the most runs. What language would it take to make him hear what we're saying? We're on his side, really -- we just want the Reds to win, and stand to gain a lot less from it than he does if they do.
Honestly, I wonder if he's ever heard these arguments and, if he has, whether he has ever thought seriously about them. It's not rocket science, and it's certainly not nerdy, pocket-protector stuff. It's just math that says he should do things differently.
He won't. He understands baseball in a very different way; in many ways it gives him insights that we can't probably imagine. But the language of probabilities and maximizing opportunities simply takes too much of the "human" side of the game for Dusty to reorient himself. He's simply so well-versed in what he does know, that it's really hard to incorporate new information in a way that still makes sense and is properly weighted.
For example, I'm sure batting 2nd might make a guy feel uncomfortable. And in Dusty's mental model, player comfort is a huge factor in what enables them to perform. But it's not like he's thinking, "Oh, if I move Frazier he'll hit .220/.290/.340, but that's still better than Cozart, so let's do it." Because he's thinking about how the clubhouse will feel about it, how Frazier will feel, how it will affect his arbitration, etc.
Right or wrong, Dusty has a whole bunch of personal and clubhouse considerations that play a not-insignificant role in his "calculus", which likely doesn't include very much actually number crunching -- mostly just skill set fits and outputs like Runs and RBI.
Suggesting that those slash line stats should be the #1, #2, and #3, driving forces behind the lineup and that the rest should matter pretty much only at the margins is a total non-starter.